Memorandum: Weekly Campaign Update, 9/13/20

To: Thom Tillis Supporters
From: Paul Shumaker, General Consultant to the Tillis Committee
Date: 9/13/2020
Subject: Weekly Campaign Update

Now that Labor Day is behind us and the fall campaign has officially begun, you will get a weekly update from the campaign’s key consulting team. We plan to keep you informed on the progress and challenges we are facing as we work to win North Carolina and hold a Republican majority in the US Senate.

The good news is, since my last memo on August 4, the race is still a toss-up. The Tillis campaign and the Trump campaign are both in a better position now than Richard Burr and President Trump were in the last week of September 2016. Our latest tracking survey showed a Presidential and Senatorial race that could go either way. Our micro-targeting data program showed great improvement in the overall political environment with generic support for Republican candidates tied with that of Democratic candidates. Do not expect a blowout like 2016. The stakes are too high and Democrats have learned from their mistakes of the past. Both the RNC and the DNC are gearing up to slug it out on the ground with massive voter turnout operations already in full swing.

Now for the bad news. We are simply being out-spent by Chuck Schumer and his liberal D.C. money machine. Between now and November 3, close to 93 million dollars is already on the books for television advertising alone for this race. Democratic-backed groups have 52 million on the books to the GOP backed groups’ 41 million.  Furthermore, our internal polling shows that for every positive message a voter receives on Thom Tillis, they get at least two negative messages. For Cunningham, the message inflow ratio is one positive for one negative.

The Democrats’ strategy is clear, make Thom Tillis appear to be a do-nothing Senator who only cares about himself while positioning Cunningham as a right-of-center moderate who is willing to work with both sides when he gets to Washington. The foundation of the Cunningham campaign is one of appearance, not fact. Cunningham is a professional politician. He lost his first race for Senate so now he’s willing to say anything in this race. It is going to take a lot of work to make sure North Carolinians know the truth.

First, the attacks from Cunningham’s allies on the Senator’s record on military issues are blatantly false. They are as misleading as Cunningham’s own ads on those same issues.

The Democrats’ attacks on Senator Tillis’ record regarding our veterans and active members of the armed forces cannot go unanswered. There are countless advocates in North Carolina’s veteran community who will defend Senator Tillis and we need their help now more than ever. North Carolinians need to hear from them so they can debunk the Democrat’s lies and allow our campaign to continue focusing on and exposing Cunningham for the extreme liberal that he is.

Next, North Carolinians must learn more about the connection between Cal Cunningham and Joe Biden. Their $3 trillion tax plan has been exposed and our polling shows that this attack has benefited the Senator as well as the President. But there are other issues where Biden and Cunningham share a connection.

Just recently, a reporter from Politico asked Cunningham about what issues he disagrees with Joe Biden on. He could only name issues he agrees on with the former Vice-President. Cunningham is a rubber-stamp for the Biden agenda, and any policy that Biden supports can now be attributed to Cunningham.

Additionally, Cunningham is a rubber-stamp for the left-wing mob that wants to change America for the worse. He has posted on social media his support for protestors who want to “abolish the police” and has bragged about marching with the same protestors. Cunningham even praised the “protestors” the very same night that they were “ransacking” Raleigh.

Cunningham also has a clear record of opposing our law enforcement community and you can expect to see more of his record in contrast to the support for and from our law enforcement community for Senator Tillis. This contrast will be critical in making inroads with suburban, white, college-educated independent voters.

We all need to understand the North Carolina of today is “the swingiest of swing states.”  It is winnable for both sides. The Democrats have been very strategic, if not outright collaborative, on their efforts to make this race all about Thom Tillis.  We must make this race about Cal Cunningham and his connection to the radical left.  If we do that, we will win.